At first glance, Jackson’s statistics for Bayern Munich last season compare well with Watkins’ figures for Villa.
The Senegalese attacker registered 11 goals and three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, producing 1.0 goal contributions per 90 minutes. Watkins, meanwhile, delivered 21 goals and five assists over 3,837 minutes, equivalent to 0.6 per 90.
Jackson was also more active in creating shooting opportunities. He recorded 3.8 attempts per 90 minutes against Watkins’ 2.6, while averaging 2.2 efforts on target compared with 1.2.
His expected-goals rate was higher too, reaching 0.7 per 90 versus 0.5. He also averaged 8.5 touches inside the opposing penalty area, while Watkins managed 5.6.
This trend was already evident before Jackson moved to Germany. Of the players to complete at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has a better non-penalty expected-goals rate per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.
Finding promising goalscoring positions has generally not been Jackson’s biggest weakness. Instead, questions have focused on how consistently he converts his opportunities.
Across his two Premier League campaigns at Chelsea, he scored 14 times from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 before recording 10 goals from 12.3 xG in the subsequent season.
Jackson has scored from 18 of his 61 major chances in England. Watkins has also failed to convert a considerable number of clear opportunities , scoring 24 from 73 since his 2020 move to Villa.
Notably, their conversion statistics last season were very similar. Jackson scored with 19.6% of all his attempts and 40.9% of his big chances, while Watkins posted rates of 18.9% and 43.2% respectively.
One significant qualification must nevertheless be considered.
Watkins made 43 starts and accumulated nearly three times as many minutes. Jackson began only 15 of his 34 games, meaning his smaller sample, which included frequent appearances from the bench, may have enhanced some of his per-90 statistics beyond what could reasonably be expected across an entire season.
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