Hull managed only nine league goals from dead-ball situations last season, matching the lowest total in the Championship. However, two such goals inside the opening 21 minutes secured a memorable win over Manchester United on Saturday.
The visitors endured a dreadful opening to their campaign. Michael Carrick had warned beforehand that the contest would be challenging, but he could hardly have imagined Hull claiming victory with such ease. Given the vast difference in resources and expectations, United were widely expected to prevail, with Opta placing their pre-match winning probability at 68.9%.
United struggled badly against Oli McBurnie’s presence as a focal point. Their careless defending at the set pieces that produced Hull’s goals deserves scrutiny, but their lack of attacking quality is an even bigger concern.
The expected-goals figures could give a misleading picture. Hull recorded 1.01 xG compared with United’s 1.83, but that does not necessarily mean the away side merited victory. The key detail is the quality of the opportunities behind those totals. United attempted 21 shots, with 16 valued below 0.1 xG.
The same weakness appeared last season, although it was less noticeable during United’s stronger performances under Carrick. In 2025-26, their shots from open play averaged 0.104 xG, the third-lowest figure among Premier League clubs finishing in the top half. Against Hull, the average dropped to only 0.087.
United did not create a meaningful opening for one of their preferred finishers until the 78th minute, when Bryan Mbeumo collected a through pass from Matheus Cunha. Their best earlier opportunities had fallen to Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui. Dorgu has previously played on the wing and started as part of the attacking midfield line in United’s 4-2-3-1 setup, but the pair have scored only 16 top-flight goals combined and cannot be considered dependable finishers.
Marcus Rashford offers considerably more attacking threat. If he stays at the club, he should eventually replace Dorgu in that role. His sharper offensive instincts might have helped United produce clearer first-half opportunities. Either way, their failure to create high-quality chances against a side that allowed the Championship’s second-highest expected-goals total in 2025-26 was deeply concerning.
Hull manager Sergej Jakirovic selected a five-player defensive line. He used three central defenders 10 times last season, including notable wins over Millwall in the second leg of the playoff semi-final and Middlesbrough in the final.
The approach proved effective, as Hull’s additional defenders limited the space available to United’s forwards. Opta’s shot map recorded eight United attempts from the central penalty-area corridor extending from the width of the six-yard box to the 18-yard line. Five were headers, which generally have a lower conversion rate, and few other efforts posed a serious threat. Hull protected the most valuable shooting positions at the MKM Stadium, and United could not break through.
Similar defensive systems have troubled United previously. They have won only one of their past six league fixtures against opponents starting with either three or five defenders. Leeds used a 3-4-3 formation to earn a 2-1 win at Old Trafford in April, then adopted the same shape in a 1-1 pre-season draw two weeks ago. Milan also followed that structure while defeating United 4-2 in their final preparation match.
Carrick acknowledged that the defeat was painful but insisted one result would not alter the team’s or club’s overall direction. While that measured long-term view is understandable, United clearly need to improve their attacking play.
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