The World Cup showpiece will pit the title holders from South America and Europe against each other for the first time. Argentina and Spain occupy the top two spots in FIFA’s men’s global rankings. Opta’s predictive model identified Luis de la Fuente’s team as the leading contender to lift the trophy, with Sunday’s opponents rated as the fourth most likely winner.
Both ranking systems placed England and France inside the top four, hinting that the semi-final lineup was the right one. Yet the tournament’s statistical picture leaves open the question of whether the two strongest sides have really made it through to the decider.
Spain are on a 37-game unbeaten run (excluding penalty shootouts) while Argentina have collected victories in their last 14 outings. That alone offers a solid case, even before examining the numbers more closely.
Unsurprisingly, the finalists are among the frontrunners for expected goals, although each has had the help of spot kicks. Removing penalties and adjusting for minutes played shows that several nations posted better underlying numbers on a per-90 basis. But no team that made the quarter-finals exceeded their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes by a wider margin than Argentina.
Given the strength of Spain’s defending, Argentina could need that overperformance to continue if they are to keep hold of the trophy. Should Spain go on to claim a second World Cup, their ability to guard their own goal will deserve to be remembered for a long time.
Spain have allowed just 2.15 expected goals, a stingy 0.31 per match. It stands out as the best record by a distance, reflecting an exceptionally consistent defensive level across seven games. By comparison, five teams conceded more than 2.15 xG in their opening fixture alone, and 41 had done so by the close of the group phase.
Graphic comparing non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes for the 2026 World Cup quarter-finalists
If that seems like a clear edge for Spain, the picture is not quite so sharp. Argentina were the last of the other 47 teams to go past the 2.15 xG conceded mark, doing so when Yasser Ibrahim gave Egypt a 1-0 lead in the round of 16. They cannot match Spain’s extraordinary defensive numbers, but no other side has stayed as close to that pace.
Set plays appear unlikely to decide the contest. Both teams have been among the strongest defensive units at dead-ball situations while posing only a moderate attacking threat from them. Still, would anyone confidently rule out Lionel Messi curling in his second direct free-kick of the tournament?
Even if that seems a long shot, Messi tops the shot count for the two finalists (34, two of them penalties). Yet Lamine Yamal (23) and Mikel Oyarzabal (22, one penalty) sit second and third. While the former can sometimes shoot from unfavourable positions, the latter boasts the best expected goals per shot average among the two squads (0.15).
Shot data from the World Cup for Argentina and Spain players
At least that holds true for those with a minimum of 10 efforts; Mikel Merino (0.35) and Lautaro Martínez (0.22) sit on higher averages and could have an important impact as substitutes. Both have a knack for taking big chances at crucial moments. With the sides so evenly matched, a player coming off the bench could easily tip the balance.
Opta assign Spain a 45% probability of winning inside 90 minutes and Argentina a 26% chance. The underlying tournament data, however, hints that the contest ought to be tighter than those figures suggest.
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