World Cup 2026 quarter-final predictions
The score is level at 1-1 deep into stoppage time in the World Cup final, and a golden opportunity lands at the feet of your standout attacker. Which of these superstars would you prefer to take it: Haaland, Mbappé, Kane, or Messi?
Lionel Messi. The way he dazzled against Egypt proved that Argentina’s iconic No. 10 can still conjure brilliance at 39. His penalty conversion rate of four from eight is surprisingly poor, but when the stakes are highest, he delivers. EA
If it were a miserable, rainy evening in Stoke, I might lean towards Haaland. At this World Cup, my choice is Messi. He’s carried an aura of inevitability through Argentina’s opening five matches – scoring in every one – and I wouldn’t bet against him extending that streak on the grandest occasion. EB
Erling Haaland has been remarkably efficient, finding the net every 14 touches. His shot conversion rate of 38.9% is the highest among players with at least 10 attempts. For breathtaking, unforgettable goals, Messi is your man. But for sheer probability of scoring, start the Viking chant and break out the oars. BD
At this moment, I’d pick Kylian Mbappé. Both he and Messi appear virtually unstoppable, able to bend matches to their will. However, after six grueling weeks and heading into an eighth match, I’ll back the younger man. BAG
Argentina exudes a transcendent quality, where Messi’s mere presence seems to inspire any teammate to produce the finest moment of their international career when it’s required. And he remains exceptional at his own role, too. JR
It has to be Messi. Even at his advanced football age, he retains the power to decide a match in an instant. He was quiet for long stretches against Egypt in the round of 16, then, suddenly, there he was with that stunning half-volley. LS
May I be evasive and say it hinges on the type of chance? If it’s a penalty or a header, perhaps not Messi; otherwise, absolutely him. He seems to operate at a different rhythm than everyone else: beyond his technical mastery, what truly sets him apart is his knack for choosing the simplest path to achieve the intended outcome in any situation. JW
Which team is most missed from the quarter-final stage …
While it was disappointing to see all three co-hosts exit in the round of 16, Japan were many people’s pre-tournament dark horses and they showed why in a thrilling opener against the Netherlands, then went out after pushing Brazil close in the last 32. A kinder draw could have seen them reach the final eight. EA
Colombia. They were entertaining in the group stage – rarely does a goalless draw leave you thinking a side could lift the World Cup, but that’s how I felt after they frustrated Portugal. Then they were handed fairly kind knockout pairings: first Ghana, then a Swiss side missing Johan Manzambi. Their round-of-16 display was a let-down; with a few more risks in regulation, they likely would have progressed. I’ll also miss their supporters: Argentina versus Colombia in Kansas City, two of world football’s most passionately backed nations, would have been unforgettable. EB
Many of the African sides – Cape Verde, Senegal, DR Congo, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire – were great fun to watch. You could make a case for the USA, hoping they would rediscover the form from their opening two games. But Mexico would have guaranteed entertainment for at least another round or two. BD
It certainly isn’t the United States. I’ll say the Netherlands. They never truly found top gear and paid a heavy price for their negative tactics against Morocco, yet the tournament feels diminished without their history, vibrancy and capacity for chaos still in the draw. BAG
Is it tactless to simply say any of the co-hosts? Every tournament admittedly feels somewhat different once the home team is sent packing; a team (or three) competing before packed, passionate stadiums creates a uniquely powerful atmosphere. JR
Sigh. The Netherlands. I never fully trusted this side, given their bizarre and very un-Dutch glut of elite defenders and thin striker corps. Nor did Ronald Koeman ever strike me as a modern manager with the flexibility to navigate tough situations. The writing was on the wall when they drew Morocco in the round of 32. Sure, it went to penalties, but Oranje were hanging on from the start. Still, like Morocco, they probably would have strolled past Canada in the next round. LS
Senegal are the biggest regret. A tough group seemed to damage their belief, and then they outplayed Belgium in that round-of-32 tie only to squander a two-goal lead with five minutes remaining. Belgium’s growth in the tournament is a nice story, but Senegal looked the far better team for most of that contest. JW
Dark horse to lift the trophy …
Morocco have been hugely impressive under Mohamed Ouahbi, who has evolved the team that reached the semi-finals four years ago before falling to France. Don’t bet against them gaining revenge when the two sides meet again. EA
Picking a dark horse from a field of eight is tough, but I’ll go with Switzerland. Gregor Kobel has made 16 saves and conceded only three goals (0.6 per match, behind only Spain and France among the remaining teams). If you split the last eight into favorites (Spain, France, England and Argentina) and surprises, the Swiss have the best xG difference (4.9) of the outsiders. We know they can defend. The question is whether they can find the net. EB
Six of FIFA’s top eight ranked nations are in the last eight. Switzerland (14th) and Norway (19th) are the outliers. The Swiss have enjoyed a comfortable path and haven’t looked like genuine challengers, so Norway earn this tag by default. If a top-eight team can qualify as a dark horse, go with Belgium, whose systematic dismantling of the USA showed the tactical and technical acumen of their predecessors remains intact. BD
Norway still seem a tier below the main contenders, but their internet-shattering striker is on a scoring run that defies logic. Haaland has 27 goals in his last 14 competitive internationals and is the first player since Gerd Müller 56 years ago to score at least seven in his first four World Cup appearances. That’s enough to make anyone a believer. BAG
Maybe Zohran Mamdani was on to something about this Morocco side. They appear to have progressed significantly from their semi-final run in 2022, shifting from underdog spoilers to a team that can control a match in multiple phases. Beating the Netherlands was no small achievement, and they are reportedly getting Ismael Saibari back following his first-half injury against Canada. JR
Are Norway now merely a mid-tier dark horse? This Norwegian side is strange in that they are only regarded as surprising because they hadn’t appeared at a World Cup for so long, yet they are riding an enormous wave of momentum. They’re managing to win even when not playing particularly well. If they can edge past England, I’d fancy their chances against Argentina (most likely?) in the semi-finals. LS
Switzerland. They consistently manage to advance further in tournaments than seems plausible; something about them seems to discourage thorough analysis. And they can defend. Surely Argentina cannot exist in this state of heightened emotion indefinitely, and then they’re one match against another familiar European side from the final. JW
Most vital player remaining in the competition …
In a tournament where the superstars have all delivered, Messi has defied his advancing years, Mbappé has been unplayable and Harry Kane has continued where he left off at Bayern Munich. But there is something about Haaland’s swagger after eliminating Brazil that makes him compelling viewing. England, be warned. EA
Kane. Without his goal against Panama, England might not have topped Group L. Without his brace against DR Congo in Atlanta, they might not have progressed from the round of 32. Without his penalty and assist in the last 16, they might not have survived the Azteca and overcome Mexico. He’s their most indispensable piece. EB
It may be too obvious, but it has to be Messi. He has scored 70% of Argentina’s goals, some with a degree of difficulty that would make an Olympic diver wince. He has placed the team squarely on his shoulders. BD
It’s tempting to overthink this, but it remains Messi. Argentina are a very strong side, yet he is what separates “very strong” from “back-to-back world champions”. The Albiceleste can survive a poor half, even a poor 80 minutes, because they know the best player on the pitch only needs a single moment. BAG
As Haaland goes, so likely go Norway. While the Norwegians aren’t among the top-ranked sides left, Haaland should be in his comfort zone facing Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa before – presumably – Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero. The path to the final suddenly looks like a routine six-point week for Manchester City. JR
Michael Olise. He wasn’t quite as imperious against Paraguay in the last 16 as he had been earlier in the tournament, though it’s doubtful France will encounter the same brand of footballing nihilism from any of the teams left. LS
Messi. He’s the player who can win games single-handed. If Argentina stay in the contest, he can decide it. A youth coach of his once spoke of the moments when he “gets that look”, as he did in the final 15 minutes against Egypt. Once that happens, he’s effectively untouchable. JW
The tactical edge belongs to …
Thomas Tuchel deserves immense credit for England’s resilient triumph in Mexico City, and he is the only remaining manager who has won the Champions League. However, Didier Deschamps is unmatched in World Cup experience. EA
Deschamps. In his closing act in charge of France, he’s allowing the stars to run the show instead of managing them with a rigid, controlled approach. This has worked wonders for their star attacking trio of Mbappé, Olise and Dembélé, making Les Bleus not only the tournament’s best team but one of its most entertaining. EB
Belgium’s Rudi Garcia outsmarted Mauricio Pochettino and devised a game plan that neutralised a previously high-flying US side. BD
Luis de la Fuente. Spain’s talent is obvious, but the shared belief is the real story. Every player seems committed to the same idea: press as a unit, defend as a unit, suffer together, and then let the ball do the rest. BAG
With respect to Thomas Tuchel, the way De la Fuente has secured total buy-in from his Spain players is genuinely rare. It’s an incredibly cohesive system, and their dedication to executing the game plan sees them through difficult stretches, as was needed against Portugal. If only they had a clinical striker to finish those sequences … JR
Mohamed Ouahbi. He had previously been a youth coach, then managed Morocco’s under-20 and under-23 sides, before being promoted to his first senior job just four months ago. Yet he’s shown himself to be shrewd with a squad that has turned over nearly two-thirds of its players since that 2022 semi-final run. He approaches every match with a clear plan, and it all seems to have played out as intended. Still, France in the quarter-final … LS
Thomas Tuchel. He may attract criticism for his initial setups, but in matches against Croatia, Panama, DR Congo and Mexico, his in-game adjustments have clearly had a major positive impact – the complete opposite of his predecessor Gareth Southgate. JW
The semi-final lineup will feature …
France v Spain; England v Argentina. EA
France v Spain; England v Argentina. EB
France v Spain; England v Argentina. BD
France v Spain; England v Switzerland. BAG
France v Spain; Norway v Argentina. JR
France v Spain; Norway v Argentina. LS
France v Spain; England v Argentina. JW
And the champion will be …
Spain 2-1 Argentina. Spain have been quietly impressive all tournament, even after an opening draw with Cape Verde, and appear impenetrable at the back – always a decisive factor in determining the winners. They are perhaps the only team that can halt France’s incredible firepower in the semi-finals, assuming Les Bleus can get past Morocco. England or Norway might fancy their chances against an Argentina side that has looked very vulnerable in defence. But they have Messi, and you can never write them off. EA
Spain 2-1 Argentina. This was my pre-tournament final forecast and I’m still reasonably confident about it. (It felt destined, in more ways than one.) Regarding Argentina … I think they will meet England in the semi-final, and both teams have carried such “team of destiny” energy in their knockout comebacks that the winner there could depend on how the footballing gods are feeling that day. Spain, on the other hand, have given me very few reasons to doubt them. A common thread among recent World Cup winners is conceding under a goal per game and keeping clean sheets. Spain have done both. To be fair, they haven’t yet faced an attack like those of the other remaining quarter-finalists, but they are adept at grinding out results. EB
France 3-2 Argentina. The more things change, the more they stay the same. In a tournament where every side has encountered difficulties, the 2022 finalists have shown the greatest capacity to win no matter the circumstances. Mbappé and Messi are just as formidable as they were earlier this decade. France will gain revenge this time because Mbappé has a stronger supporting cast around him. BD
France 2-2 England (aet, 3-4 on penalties). No one ever claimed this sport lacks a sense of humour. France may be the class of the tournament, but knockout football isn’t always about being the best team. England have looked more vulnerable, yet they are a deep squad with rare institutional know-how (by England standards) who have also displayed a knack for surviving uncomfortable moments. Penalties have so often been the punchline; this time they become the payoff. BAG
Spain 2-3 Argentina. With all co-hosts eliminated, Argentina have become the adopted home team at this tournament, and Messi is some kind of match-wrangling wizard. It also helps that Lautaro Martínez has been more impactful off the bench than he was in Qatar. JR
France 3-1 Argentina. This was my pre-tournament prediction for the final and I’m sticking with it. But I don’t expect a hugely competitive match. Because assuming they’ve beaten Morocco in the quarter-final and likely Spain in the semis, facing Argentina won’t be as stern a test. I don’t think the Argentinian back line, which has already conceded four goals in the knockout rounds, can do much against that Mbappé-Dembélé-Olise triangle, plus whoever plays on the left. Spirit and experience will take you an awfully long way, but that is simply too much firepower for them to handle in this rematch of the previous World Cup final. LS
France 2-1 England. France’s brilliant attack will be examined by Spain’s defence in the semi-final, but assuming they come through that, and assuming Argentina’s emotional wave is halted at some point (and that England have contained Erling Haaland; having two of his Manchester City teammates at the centre of England’s defence may assist), they should overcome England in the final. They are a stronger side than when they beat England in Qatar, while England’s defence looks more fragile. JW
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