Within a year of Gianni Infantino taking over from Sepp Blatter as Fifa president, the organisation revealed that the men’s World Cup would expand from 32 to 48 nations. Reactions were mixed. Diego Maradona said he was “delighted by Gianni’s initiative” because it let every country dream of qualifying, reigniting their love for football. Joachim Löw, then managing world champions Germany, argued that “diluting the sporting value” was not a good idea and would harm quality in the long run.
Judging by the first 48-nation edition, won by Spain after 104 matches across five and a half weeks in North America, it is fair to say both Maradona and Löw had a point.
Cape Verde lead new faces
“Football stretches beyond Europe and South America; it is global,” Infantino remarked after the 48-team format was announced in 2017, and the 2026 World Cup was unquestionably a celebration of the game’s diversity. Africa and Asia gained more than other confederations from the larger qualifying quotas, and all four debutants produced memorable moments. Livano Comenencia’s equaliser for Curaçao against Germany was a group-stage standout, while Cape Verde became the tournament’s biggest underdog tale, even without picking up a win.
The round of 32 also handed six countries their first taste of World Cup knockout football, with Egypt and Canada both claiming historic victories at that stage. With Infantino expected to distribute the tournament’s record revenues across Fifa’s member associations, you could argue that the smaller nations – especially those tapping into a previously overlooked diaspora – will only grow stronger in future editions.
Gulf in class
A bigger tournament brought a wider gulf between opponents in the group stage. At the last 32-team World Cup in Qatar, Brazil against Haiti was the most lopsided group fixture, with a gap of 77 places in the world rankings. This time there were five group games with gaps exceeding 65 places. Some of those were competitive – England 0-0 Ghana, Spain 0-0 Cape Verde. Even so, a shock defeat for a heavyweight was highly unlikely, let alone a humiliating group-stage elimination like those suffered by holders Spain in 2014 or Germany in 2018. A poor Uruguay side was the sole major early casualty.
Where Costa Rica had the worst goal difference in 2022 (-8), five nations matched or exceeded that in 2026. Iraq (-11) were the whipping boys in Group I – the closest thing to a group of death the 48-team structure could assemble, containing France, Norway and Senegal, all of whom progressed in predictable fashion. The more subdued group stage did at least allow star names such as Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi to build real momentum in a memorable Golden Boot race.
Flawed third-place system
After the drama of the 2022 group stage, where only two teams (about 6%) were officially out before the final round of fixtures, Fifa abandoned plans for three-team groups in the expanded 48-nation format and kept four-team groups, with eight third-placed sides advancing to the last 32. This did not fully dispel fears of collusion nor remove the competitive edge for teams playing later who knew exactly what result they needed.
Knockout opponents could also shift in an instant. When Riyad Mahrez fired Algeria 3-2 ahead against Austria in the 93rd minute of Group J’s final game, it set Algeria up as runners-up facing Spain in the last 32. When they conceded an equaliser in the 96th minute, it redirected them to Switzerland on the opposite side of the draw. Players and supporters of third-place finishers such as Scotland were also left waiting for several days only to discover they were heading home.
Because head-to-head replaced goal difference as the tie-breaker, five teams (around 10%) were already eliminated before their final group match, with the third-place system creating an illusion that everything was still to play for.
What about 64 teams?
Infantino again underlined the need to stage the World Cup “not just for Europe and South America” when he dropped hints about expanding to 64 teams. Adding another 16 nations – but only 24 more matches – appears a logical next step for Fifa if they want to scrap the third-place system and return to a top-two qualification format. There would be some jeopardy, though the group disparities would be even wider.
Nations such as New Caledonia (ranked 151) and Indonesia (118) reached the late stages of qualifying for the 2026 edition and could make the finals with higher quotas. How would they fare against Spain or Argentina? And with the world’s 16 best teams all in the same pot, glamorous group ties – already rare this time – would probably become a thing of the past. England 4-2 Croatia would not have occurred with 64 teams.
Then there is the logistical challenge of staging four games a day across a three-week group phase – with many matches scheduled during the summer daytime heat in Spain, Portugal and Morocco. Of the 23 proposed venues, only the revamped Bernabéu and Camp Nou would feature roofs. Further expansion will certainly be a hot topic in the months ahead.
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