England have secured their place in the World Cup’s knockout stage and are set to face Mexico on Sunday (1am Monday BST). Yet beyond the opposing team, another challenge awaits: the thin air of high elevation.
We examine how competing at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, situated 2,240m above sea level, could influence their play.
With greater elevation, the atmosphere becomes less dense.
“At 2,240m, we are certainly going to observe a physiological impact,” stated Dr Neil Maxwell, a specialist in applied environmental physiology at the University of Brighton.
Maxwell explained that while the proportion of oxygen in the atmosphere remains constant from sea level to high altitude, the surrounding air pressure is reduced.
“Consequently, the driving force of that pressure, which pushes oxygen into your red blood cells, is diminished. That is the physiological hurdle – they are not absorbing the oxygen into the red blood cells,” he said. “Because of this, their hearts must pump faster and their breathing rate increases to try and offset the deficit. But naturally, there is a ceiling to how much they can compensate.”
Over the course of a 90-minute contest, Maxwell noted, this will place immense strain on the athletes. “So the sensation they might typically feel at the end, or in the final quarter, of a fixture, they will be experiencing that in the opening half,” he said.
Maxwell also pointed out that players will undergo greater energy loss in their muscles and will likely perspire more heavily.
While the Mexican squad will also fatigue during the game, Maxwell indicated their preparation at similar elevations means they would not be anticipated to suffer the same level of exhaustion as the England side. He added the latter will not regain their energy between high-speed runs as quickly as at lower grounds, meaning they won’t be able to reach the ball with the same speed.
Dr Rebecca Neal, from Bournemouth University, said information gathered from athletes not adapted to such conditions indicates a possible 3-9% drop in total distance covered during a match and a 21% decrease in high-speed running, observing that this might affect midfield players the most.
“Additionally, they will modify their tempo and endure greater neuromuscular tiredness meaning, even if their technical ability is not hampered, they might have to adopt unfamiliar strategies,” she said.
Maxwell stated that if sportspeople travel rapidly to high ground without adapting, there is a danger of altitude sickness. He mentioned this can vary from headaches, lightheadedness and disrupted sleep, to much rarer but more severe forms of mountain sickness – although such dangers generally become more pertinent above roughly 2,500 m.
When should players travel to a high-elevation venue?
The England team are scheduled to reach Mexico just two days prior to the contest.
“A beneficial altitude preparation plan would involve repeated sprints in low-oxygen conditions for up to four weeks in the lead-up to and sustained throughout the World Cup and could have been favourable for this fixture,” said Neal.
Thomas Tuchel expressed dissatisfaction with Fifa’s regulations concerning when England could travel to Mexico City. Photograph: Eddie Keogh/The FA/Getty Images
According to Maxwell, turning up the day before the game would not offer the squad much advantage. “There is a slight misconception that you get a 24-hour period of grace when you arrive at altitude, before the impact kicks in,” he said. “Your body begins reacting to the low oxygen, to the high-elevation setting, immediately. Within six hours, they will be starting to sense the effects of this.”
Does the high elevation influence the match in other ways?
It could alter the trajectory of the ball. Prof Barton Smith, a specialist in mechanical and aerospace engineering at Utah State University, observes that air density in Mexico City is roughly 25% lower than at sea level – signifying there is less resistance to slow the ball’s flight.
“However, I would be astonished if that greatly sways the game, particularly for close-range attempts,” he said.
Nevertheless, Smith noted air density is also crucial for the Magnus effect: a phenomenon where a spinning ball curves as it speeds through the air. Reduced air density results in a smaller Magnus effect, meaning the ball will swerve or ‘move’ less.
“When the ball moves less, there cannot be as much subtlety to kicks,” said Smith.
Will England face a handicap?
Without preparation at elevated sites, the England team may find the environment demanding. Neal highlighted studies have shown teams based at high altitudes score more and allow fewer goals than teams from lower grounds, with each 1,000m difference in elevation giving the host team approximately a half-goal edge, adding this could be more pronounced in the second period.
Yet, Maxwell noted previous fixtures have occurred in warm environments. “There is a cross-tolerance or a cross-adaptive advantage gained from heat exposure to altitude. So actually [England] improving in the heat will offer them a slight edge in the high-altitude setting,” he said.
“For a side such as England, with medical assistance and meticulous readiness, the biggest worry is likely the physiological burden imposed by hypoxia [low oxygen availability] and the subsequent effect this has on work rate, recovery and judgement instead of any significant health peril,” he said.
Neal also mentioned there could be some overlapping advantages from adapting to the heat, but noted the available literature is sparse and inconsistent, particularly concerning football.
“Instead, England has chosen to concentrate on lessening the impact of heat and any final ‘least worst’ approaches for this particular fixture,” she said.
Are there any immediate solutions?
Maxwell stressed the significance of England players unwinding before they depart for Mexico, and once there, maintaining fluid intake, familiarising themselves with the movement of the ball, and not spending more energy than necessary.
“For England, they must try to depend on what is within their influence rather than what is outside it,” he said, underscoring the crucial nature of adjusting their game plan.
He said the deployment of replacements will be vital, and proposed England should apply less persistent pressure. “I’m not claiming they won’t unleash some intense bursts to try and find the net, but they will likely need to retain possession more and circulate it around the back, then simply watch for those few moments to surge forward,” he said.
Neal also emphasised the critical role of strategy. “Without a window to adapt, remaining healthy and concentrating on tactics during the latter half of the game will be essential at this advanced stage,” she said.
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