There is a widespread belief that newly promoted clubs surviving their first campaign are frequently relegated one year later, a trend commonly described as ‘second-season syndrome’. However, the evidence suggests it may not happen as often as assumed.
Sunderland and Leeds became the 53rd and 54th promoted teams to retain their Premier League status last season.
Among the previous 52 clubs, just 11 were relegated in the following campaign, representing 21%. This means most promoted sides that survive their opening season avoid second-season syndrome.
Nevertheless, history shows that even a promoted team enjoying a debut campaign as impressive as Sunderland’s can go down the next year. The strongest newly promoted side of the Premier League’s 38-match era experienced exactly that outcome.
Under George Burley, Ipswich completed the 2000-01 season in fifth place with 66 points, setting the best finish and highest points total achieved by a promoted club in a 38-game campaign.
Their involvement in European competition was followed by a dramatic decline, as they fell 13 positions and collected 30 fewer points the next season. Ipswich were relegated in 18th, while Sunderland survived by finishing one place higher.
In total, four of the previous 20 promoted clubs that secured a top-half finish in their first season were relegated in the next, a rate of 20%. Sheffield United were the latest team to suffer that fate, five years ago.
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